Two prominent analysts, Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, and Prof. Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University, have presented contrasting data on the electoral performance of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer, in the Ashanti Region ahead of the 2024 general elections.
Prof. Sarpong’s research suggests that Dr. Bawumia enjoys overwhelming support in the NPP stronghold, securing an estimated 75.9% of the votes in the Ashanti Region.
His findings highlight Bawumia’s dominance in the region, considered the party’s electoral backbone, and reinforce predictions of a strong showing in the December 2024 polls.
In contrast, Mussa Dankwah’s analysis paints a less optimistic picture for the NPP candidate in the region. According to a survey conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, Bawumia’s projected performance in the Ashanti Region stands at 68%, significantly lower than Prof. Sarpong’s figure.
Dankwah suggests that voter dissatisfaction and internal party dynamics could affect the traditionally high voter turnout and margins for the NPP in its stronghold.
In a discussion with Bernard Avle on Channel One TV‘s The Point of View, Mussa Dankwah also mentioned that John Dramani Mahama, the flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), managed to obtain 29% of the votes during the same timeframe in the Ashanti Region.
“For six weeks [October 12 to November 16, 2024] that we have been polling, the Ashanti region has not crossed 68% for Bawumia, even while he was there.
“For the six weeks, the average for Bawumia has been 65% in the Ashanti region for voter preference on the telephone. And Mahama is 27% in the Ashanti region. When we went back after this survey in the Ashanti region, with nearly 4,000 samples, Bawumia, when he was there, went to 68% and Mahama got 29%.”
When asked if Bawumia can cross 70% of votes in the Ashanti region, he said, “I will say no.”
But Professor Smart Sarpong has indicated that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is leading with 75% of the votes in the Ashanti Region.
This figure falls short of the party’s goal to achieve 85% support in its traditional stronghold.
In an interview with Bernard Avle on the same programme on Wednesday Professor Sarpong also noted that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, John Dramani Mahama, is polling at 22.1% in the same region.
According to him, Mahama is in the lead with 52.3% in the Greater Accra region while Bawumia followed with 40.5%.
“Ashanti Region, Dr Bawumia 75.9%, former president Mahama 22.1%. Greater Accra, former president Mahama is in the lead with 52.3%, followed by Vice President Dr Bawumia with 40.5%. Nana Kwame Bediako [The New Force] 4.4%. Chief Alan [Alan Kyerematen, Movement for Change presidential candidate] 1.3%, the remaining 1.5%.”
Prof Sarpong, in a recent poll, disclosed that Dr Mahamudu Bawumia led with 49.1%, while John Dramani Mahama trailed at 45.8%.
The poll, conducted as of November 16, 2024, just four weeks before the general elections, also showed Independent Candidate Nana Kwame Bediako polling 2.2% and Alan Kyerematen of the Movement for Change securing 1.2%. Other candidates collectively garnered 1.7% of the votes.
In a press release issued on November 21, Prof. Sarpong stated, “It is clear from this report that elections 2024 can be won at the first round by ONLY one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory.”
Election 2024: Latest Global InfoAnalytics poll tips Mahama for victory
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